The 'main hun na' school of budgeting

Arun Shourie: Saturday, March 29, 2008

Arun Shourie puts the Budget to the aam aadmi test and argues why the UPA fails miserably

In the Budget for 1990/91, the VP Singh Government announced a loan waiver of Rs. 10,000 crore. The Government was soon out. I am not on the precedent, but on the accounting! The waiver had been included in the Budget.

Soon, a new Government was in office. Delivering the Budget speech on 24 July, 1991, the then Finance Minister was as stern as he was scornful about the loan waiver, and about the way it had been budgeted.

‘There is one large component of non-plan expenditure that is a burden on the exchequer,’ he told Parliament. ‘I refer to the Government’s obligation under the Rural Debt Relief Scheme. Unfortunately, there was a gross under-estimation of the total fiscal liability under this scheme which was introduced last year. In addition to the sum of Rs. 1500 crores provided in the revised estimates for last year, we have to provide Rs. 1500 crores in the current year. But this is not all. We may need a similar provision in the next year.’

Guess, who was so punctilious then. The words constitute paragraph 39, of the Budget Speech delivered that day by the then Finance Minister, Dr. Manmohan Singh.

And now? No provision at all for the Rs. 60,000 crore that the loan waiver is supposed to cost. ‘Main hun na’… ‘Credit me with some intelligence...’ ‘Funds will be found...’ ‘Modalities are being worked out…’

After much bewildered talk, the Prime Minister and Finance Minister did hit upon one source for financing the waiver: we may sell Public Sector equity, they suggested. On behalf of the CPI(M), Brinda Karat shot that down with one sentence. Chidambram then told Parliament – and this is after two weeks of confusion -- that he was confident that he would be able to carve Rs. 40,000 crore out of buoyant revenues this year, and that he was equally confident that it would not be difficult for whichever Government is in office next year to find the remaining Rs. 20,000 crore.

Take him at his word for a minute. If it is possible to be so confident on 14 and 17 March when he said as much to the two Houses of Parliament, why it could not have been said while announcing the waiver a fortnight earlier?

Here is Parliament being asked to approve a scheme of Rs. 60,000 crore with no inkling of where the money will come from, and, hence, with no idea of what its impact will be – on prices, on interest rates… Even of whom the waiver will benefit. Is this ‘accountability’? ‘Transparency’?

And this is just a typical omission.

The Sixth Pay Commission is to report soon. Given that election loom, the Government will certainly implement the pay hikes. The Fifth Pay Commission had increased emoluments by 35 per cent. There will be cascading effect for state governments, for municipalities, indeed for each and every institution even vaguely linked to the State machinery. There is no provision at all for this certain outlay in Chidambram’s Budget. When it is prudent to include Rs. 5,000 crore in the Railway Budget as the likely outflow on account of the Sixth Pay Commission increases, why is prudent not to make a provision for the same contingency in the General Budget?

Similarly, subsidies on petroleum products, on food and fertilizers are mentioned, but not included! The latter two alone are estimated to be over Rs. 63,000 crore. The Fiscal deficit is put at 1,33,287 crore in this Budget. Once you include the four items that have been left out – the loan waiver, the subsidies on petroleum, food and fertilizers -- plus the impact of the 6th Pay Commission, it is liable to be double the figure that has been indicated. Fiscal responsibility?

A reform they were to institute

‘Seven years ago, I placed before Parliament the first paper on subsidies,’ Chidambram said in the Budget for 2004/05. They need to be sharply targeted at the poor and the really needy. So? He has, he said, initiated a new study on them!

By the next Budget, he had taken further action: he had placed the study before Parliament. Subsidies are necessary, ‘However, we must now take up the task of restructuring the subsidy regime in a cautious manner and after a thorough discussion.’

Nothing was done even by the 2007/08 Budget. ‘The issue of subsidies is proving to be a divisive one,’ Chidambram said, ‘but I would urge Honourable Members that it is imperative that we make progress on this front if we are serious about targeting subsidies at the poor and the truly needy.’ It isn’t that he had done nothing: ‘My Ministry has held extensive discussions with stakeholders on three major subsidies, namely, food, fertilizer and petroleum. We have also sought the views of the general public. Working groups/committees have gone into the question of fertilizer and petroleum subsidies, the latest being the Dr. C. Rangarajan Committee. I would urge Members to help the Government evolve a consensus on the issue of subsidies.’ Another consultant to Government.

The Prime Minister, of course, alternates his emphasis: reforms one day; reforms with a human face the next! And yet, at least on occasion, he has spoken clearly. The Gross Budgetary Support for the 11th Plan is going to be double of what it was during the 10th Plan, he told the Planning Commission last November. ‘These are large increases by any reckoning,’ he continued. ‘This will only be possible if we have strong growth, if tax revenues remain buoyant as they have been in recent years and if non-Plan expenditure is checked and checked effectively. We need to address the problem of mounting subsidies in food, fertilizers and now, in petroleum which is a recent phenomenon. Over Rs. 1 lakh crores are going to be spent this year alone on these three items. I would like my cabinet colleagues and the Planning Commission to reflect what these mean for our development options and what development options these subsidies are shutting out. Do they mean fewer schools, fewer hospitals, fewer scholarships, slower public investment in agriculture and poorer infrastructure? It is important that we restructure subsidies so that only the really needy and the poor benefit from them and all leakages are plugged.’

The warnings having been given, the task is done – what more are consultants to do, after all? There is no mention of the subject in Chidambram’s Budget speech this year.

But there is mention of one of these subsidies – that on fertilizers – in the document distributed with the Budget, Implementation of Budget 2007-2008. In the Budget for 2007/08, Chidambram had emphasized the need to distribute fertilizer subsidies by some alternate way – so that they reach the farmer directly rather than being eaten up by fertilizer companies. So, what is going to be done? ‘The fertilizer industry has agreed to work with the Department of Fertilizers,’ he told Parliament, ‘to conduct a study and find a solution.’ And what will happen once the study has been done? By now, you should be able to guess: ‘Based on the report, Government intends to implement a pilot programme in at least one district in each State in 2007-08.’

That was the last Budget. And what are we told now about what has been done on this matter? ‘The modalities for providing an alternative method of delivering the fertilizer subsidy directly to the farmer are being worked out. The proposal was examined by a Group of Ministers (GOM) and the Report is being finalized.’

In the meanwhile, all the ills continue: the industry does not get reimbursed in time; the farmer does not get the full benefit; the application of fertilizers remains distorted and our land is harmed.

Exactly the position in regard to the other subsidy, of Rs. 32,600 crore – that on food: the 61st Round of the NSS reveals that one half of the poorest quintile do not have either a BPL card or one for the Antyodaya Anna Yojana. On the other hand, more than a sixth of the richest quintile have BPL cards!

The Italians have the right expression for it

‘The Eleventh Plan target for additional power generation capacity is 78,577 MW,’ Chidambram told Parliament while speaking on this new Budget, adding, ‘which is more than the total capacity added in the previous three Plans.’ In the 10th Plan the target was 41,000 MW. Additional capacity that got commissioned was just about 21,000 MW. But why be niggardly in setting targets? John Galbriath had a word for Indian Planning: ‘therapeutic targetry’! But the sentence that scores for gall is the next one: ‘By end March 2008, we will achieve Commercial Operation Date (COD) on about 10,000 MW, marking the best first year in any Plan period.’

Just pause for a moment, and read that sentence again: ‘By end March 2008, we will achieve Commercial Operation Date (COD) on about 10,000 MW, marking the best first year in any Plan period.’ The trick in it is the benchmark that has been used, ‘Commercial Operation Date (COD)’ – a plant that has been completed is said to have attained ‘Commercial Operation Date’ once it has been in operation at full load for at least 72 hours. Ten power plants contributing 3020 MW were included when totaling up the achievements of the last year of the 10th Plan on the ground that they had been ‘commissioned’. They have been counted again among the achievements of the first year of the 11th Plan – on the ground that in regard to them ‘Commercial Operation Date’ has been achieved! The plants are the same ten. Nor is it just that: among these ten, is Ratnagiri CCPP (Dabhol) II, a plant that was completed in the Ninth Plan; among them is the atomic power plant at Kaiga – which is virtually shut for want of fuel; among them is Karbilangpi, a plant of the Sixth Plan! Nor indeed do the remaining ten plants – accounting for 3090 MW of the 10,000 MW for which Chidambram takes credit – testify to either reforms or execution in the power sector having improved. Each one of them has been under construction for years – among them is another Dabhol plant, Ratnagiri CCPP III, which too was completed in the Ninth Plan; among them are two plants at Purlia which were sanctioned in the Eighth Plan!

Claims and promises in regard to the Ultra Mega Power Projects in Chidambram’s successive budgets have been even more farcical, even more brazenly misleading. It is our intention to award five projects before December 31, 2006, he told Parliament in the Budget for 2006/07. By the 2007/08 Budget, this became, ‘Seven more UMPPs are under process and we are confident that at least two will be awarded by July, 2007.’ In this Budget, he says that the fourth UMPP ‘will be awarded shortly,’ and that five more can be brought to the bidding stage provided the states extend the requisite support. After listing four Ultra Mega Projects, his document of ‘accountability and transparency’, Implementation of Budget 2007-2008, reports ‘Five other suitable sites have been identified by the Central Electricity Authority’ – it proceeds to list five sites in five states. The fact as of 20 February, 2008 is that not one site has been finalized, not one. In regard to each of them, letters are going to and from central and state governments: I can supply the list at short notice.

And yet you can’t quite say that the Government has lied – notice the words it has used, ‘Five other suitable sites have been identified by the Central Electricity Authority.’ That doesn’t mean they have been settled, and, if you concluded as much, well, that is your problem.

The Italians have the right expression for this kind of reporting: suppressio veri suggestio falsi – to suppress the truth is to suggest the false!

A symptom

And yet the Budget is but a symptom of the ways of the Government:

•Just go on announcing schemes;

•Grab existing schemes, group them, give them a new name, and proclaim them as historic new initiatives;

•Announce huge grants and outlays, forget them;

•Advance false claims: those ‘Action Completed’s;

•Shove problems to the future – as in the loan waiver; shove blame on the past – even when doing so flatly contradicts what you have yourself stated in Parliament, as the Prime Minister’s ‘the unpaid distress bills of the NDA’ is flatly contradicted by what is set out in the Economic Survey 2003/04 that Chidambram himself tabled;

•Mislead – as in the calculation of the deficit;

•Double-count – as in regard to power;

•Proclaim the desirable –‘we must aim at outcomes, not just outlays,’ the necessity for reforms as in the Economic Survey – and make people believe that, because you have proclaimed the desirable, you are straining to attain it.

And do all this with full faith – that no one will actually read the documents you pile on them; that, even of they do, they will soon forget; that the media are the easiest to bamboozle…Mismanagement

The Budget is a symptom also of gross mismanagement of the economy. Apart from the fact that reforms have been at a complete standstill ever since this ‘dream-team’ of ‘reformers’ took office, their management has brought the country back into the vicious cycle of high interest rates, declining growth, and inflation. Till 2004 April, foodgrain stocks had been scrupulously kept 40 to 50 per cent higher than norms set by experts – so that fixers always knew that, were they to raise prices, Government could, and would, counter them by releasing stocks from its godowns. Ever since, stocks have been allowed to fall below the norms – with the result that traders today know that the Government just does not have the wherewithal to stabilize prices.

The result has been worsened by erratic policies. Exports of non-basmati rice were banned; soon the ban was lifted. Government did nothing as wheat output fell short; then it floated a tender to import wheat; then it cancelled the tender, then…

As prices kept rising, it hurtled to swat a fly with an axe – the axe of monetary policy: higher interest rates, tightened money supply… Prices continue to rise, and naturally so. Investment is discouraged, and naturally so. Growth rate of manufactures has already begun falling, predictably so…

The dream-team…

(Concluded)

For all stories visit www.indianexpress.com/arunshourie

The new remedies

Arun Shourie: Friday, March 28, 2008

Arun Shourie puts the Budget to the aam aadmi test and argues why the UPA fails miserably

What the CAG’s Performance Audit has revealed about the ‘flagships’ – the National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme and the Rajiv Gandhi Drinking Water Mission – is the pattern. NC Saxena draws attention to an account of another ‘flagship’ programme held up by Chidambram in this new Budget, the ICDS – the Integrated Child Development Services. After citing what the PM, FM, etc. have been saying about ensuring outcomes and not being lulled by outlays, Saxena asks, and ‘How is outcome delivered in the states?’, and answers, ‘By falsifying records!’ He cites the tour observations of a person in a position to know, and unlikely to state things that would embarrass the Government:

‘We discovered that all data of children at the centre for the past five months, weight, vaccinations, health records etc, were filled in with pencils. On probing further, I found it was done so that in case of an official inspection, the figures could be erased and “correct” data inserted to make the centre’s performance look good!’

The writer? The Congress MP, Sachin Pilot. Recalling such accounts, Saxena observes, ‘The practice is so widely prevalent in all the states, presumably with the connivance of senior officers, that the data reaching GOI [according to a recent study by the National Institute of Public Cooperation and Child Development] shows only 8% as the overall percentage of malnourished children in case of 0-3 years (with only one percent children severely malnourished), as against 46% reported by NFHS-3. What is equally astonishing is the fact that records show a steep decline in the percentage of malnourished children from 29% to 8%, which is totally at variance with the findings of the various NFHS surveys. By sending bogus reports the field officials are thus able to escape from any sense of accountability for reducing malnutrition.’

This then is the pattern. And what does Chidambram propose to do about the matter? He sets it out in his new Budget:

‘I think we do not pay enough attention to outcomes as we do to outlays; or to physical targets as we do to financial targets; or to quality as we do to quantity. Government therefore proposes to put in place a Central Plan Schemes Monitoring System (CPSMS) that will be implemented as a Plan scheme of the Planning Commission. A comprehensive Decision Support System and Management Information System will also be established. The intended outcome is to generate and monitor scheme-wise and State-wise releases for about 1,000 Central Plan and centrally sponsored schemes in 2008-09.’

Pray, what is the reason to believe that this new central scheme of the Planning Commission will work better than the 1000 central schemes of the Planning Commission that it is to monitor? Then follow the currently fashionable words, ‘Government also intends to strengthen evaluation. Some ministries have started concurrent evaluation. This needs to be supplemented by independent evaluations conducted by research institutions. The Planning Commission will authorise such evaluations of the major schemes and complete the task by the time of the mid-term review of the Eleventh Plan.’

Pray, why will the new evaluations authorised by the Planning Commission be more independent than the innumerable ones that it has authorised in the past? Why will they be more independent than the countless evaluations that have been done independently of the Commission in the past?

The piece de resistance

In each of its five Budgets, this Government has had one triumphant item – agricultural credit. In each Budget, Chidambram has proclaimed higher and higher targets, and in each he has announced that the target has been exceeded. In the new Budget, he says that, as against Rs. 100,000 crore that were disbursed when this Government assumed office, Rs. 280,000 crore shall be disbursed as rural credit in 2008/09.

Surely, that very fact should have alerted the Government that either the credit is not reaching those who need it most, or that their problems are not going to get solved by credit alone. As suicides have mounted, as the agrarian crisis has barged more and more into its face, the Government has done what it always does – it has appointed committee after committee: the Swaminathan Commission; the Radhakrishna ‘Expert Group on Agricultural Indebtedness’; the A. Vaidyanathan ‘Task Force on Cooperative Banking’; the RBI’s ‘Working Group on Distressed Farmers’ headed by Sardara Singh Johl; the RBI’s ‘Technical Group to Review Legislations on Money Lending’ headed by SC Gupta.

Second, it has rained package after package:

•2% remission in interest rate – 1,700 crore were provided for this in the 2006/07 Budget;

•The Backward Regions Grant Fund: in the 2006/07 Budget, Chidambram announced that he would disburse Rs. 5,000 crore; this year he pledges to disburse Rs. 5,800 crore;

•In July, 2006, Government announced the PM’s special package for distressed farmers of 31 districts in four states. In the 2007/08 Budget, Chidambram announced that Rs. 16,979 crore would be spent under this special package. The usual panoply of institutions have been set up to implement and monitor the package: state-level committees consisting of representatives of central and state government, district level committees and Panchayati Raj institutions, and ‘appropriate institutional structure and special purpose cooperatives/community based organizations at the local level for delivery of the package and optimum utilization of resources in a time-bound manner.’

And yet distress continues unabated. Yet suicides go on increasing. Who is swallowing up these packages? What is happening to the packages?

The Report of the Radhakrishna Committee – The Expert Group on Agricultural Indebtedness – gives a part of the answer. It sets out the result of its inquiries into the fate of the PM’s special package in its Report:

•Commenting on the disbursement of fresh loans, the Committee observes, ‘The gap in the off take of fresh credit in three states (Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Maharashtra) indicates that the credit needs of the farmers were not assessed accurately. The credit flow targets do not appear to have been based on a proper assessment of the credit absorption capacity at the farm/household level. In order to ensure that the basic objectives of providing farm credit are not distorted, disbursements should have been made only after proper project appraisal. This also calls for greater coordination among banks and block level officials at the ground level in identifying the genuine credit needs of the people.’

•In regard to ‘Irrigation’, it finds, ‘Utilization rates varied across states and between irrigation schemes. In the case of major irrigation schemes, delay occurred because for some of them like Accelerated Irrigation Benefit Programme (AIBP) sanction has to be obtained from the Planning Commission and for many others from the Ministry of Environment and Forest and Tribal Affairs. This is a time-consuming process.’

Pause a moment. That sentence itself gives us a glimpse of the well-practiced trick: the Accelerated Irrigation Benefit Programme is an existing programme. All that has been done is that it has now been shoved into the new envelope, ‘The PM’s special package for distressed farmers in 31 districts’! But to continue with the findings of the Radhakrishna Committee:

•‘The progress is poor under minor irrigation in the case of Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka due to the existence of grey blocks…’

•‘Watershed Development, Rainwater Harvesting and Check Dams: Progress has been extremely poor in all the states. Even Maharashtra, which had in place a shelf of sanctioned projects, could utilize only 12 per cent of its financial allocation of Rs.54 crore in the year.’

And then a comic instance:

•‘Kerala falls under high rainfall area and no watershed projects are being implemented in the state under any of the Government/NABARD programmes. As such, the concept of watershed development is relatively new to the state; all the partner institutions involved in the implementation of the project are required to be sensitized vigorously.’

And then, a glimpse of the same old trick – of giving an existing programme a new name, but this time with another comic consequence:

•‘In the case of Andhra Pradesh, the state government was already availing of loan from the Watershed Development Fund at the time the package was announced. The switchover from loan mode to grant mode took some time due to the procedures involved in the conversion.’

And then the thoughtlessness: ‘The process of watershed development requires five to six years,’ the Committee notes, but the authorities that be have decreed a cut-off of three years!

•‘Rainwater harvesting and construction of check dams are a non-starter in most districts.’

And it turns out that in some cases at least there is good reason for this!

•‘Some states which are implementing rain water schemes and enjoying cent per cent subsidy are reluctant to switch over to the scheme from the Ministry of Agriculture under the Prime Minister’s package. With regard to check dams, NABARD is yet to receive proposals from any of the states….’

And so on, to one dismal conclusion after another: ‘There is no coordination between different agencies implementing the schemes. Further, no information is available on the impact of the scheme on the people. In addition to financial targets in the Prime Minister’s package, physical targets need to be set and monitored…’

Lesson? Another massive special package! Exactly, but exactly the sort of package that the Radhakrishna Committee, the RBI’s Working Group, Vaidyanathan himself, each and every one of them had said should not be given: a ‘historic’ loan waiver amounting to Rs. 60,000 crore.

The loan waiver

First, as expert after expert has pointed out no one knows from where this figure of Rs. 60,000 crore has dropped. Second, the waiver is of loans that are overdue to commercial banks, rural banks and cooperatives. Each of the expert bodies has emphasized that the farmers in real need are the ones who do not have access to institutional credit – they borrow from moneylenders and the like. Two columns – one for Andhra which has witnessed a spate of suicides, and one for India as a whole -- from the detailed tables furnished by the Radhakrishna Committee tell the tale:

Accordingly, to get relief to the ones who really need it, the Radhakrishna Committee suggested, not a loan waiver but a ‘one-time measure of providing long-term loans by banks to enable them to repay their debts to moneylenders,’ and thereby free them from the latters’ clutches. The RBI’s Working Group as well as experts like Vaidyanathan added another reason: arguing against giving any general loan waiver, they pointed out that it would reward those who had not paid, that it would implicitly penalize those who had, that it would reinforce the culture of not living up to one’s contractual obligations.

But compassion is compassion! Hence, 60,000 crore it shall be.

NC Saxena and Vaidyanathan – both advisors to the Government – prick the claims. Saxena points out that the farmers who get credit from institutions are actually those who are well-enough connected to have access to these banks and cooperatives. A number of these, Saxena points out, double up as moneylenders! They borrow from the banks at 6.5 per cent, and lend to the small farmer in distress at rates ranging from 50 to 100 per cent. So, who is the waiver actually going to help? Vaidyanathan adds a further fatal detail. Writing in The Hindu, he points out that ‘The magnitude of outstanding debt of rural households, going by National Sample Survey data, is less than outstanding debt reported by the institutions in the cooperatives and substantially so in regional rural banks. Since both are intended to lend mostly in rural areas, this difference suggests that they also carry a sizeable portfolio of non-household, non-rural loans… There is good reason to believe that a generalized waiver of all overdues will benefit non-rural borrowers to a considerable extent; that the large majority of rural households, including those in the below 2 hectares category will not benefit; and that the magnitude of the benefit will be considerably less than Rs. 60,000 crore. Benefits in rural areas will accrue to a rather small fraction of households and the magnitude of beneficiaries is likely to be considerably less than the cited figure.’

But who is listening? It is celebration time, time to seize the moment: posters, rallies to hail the Almighty for her beneficence… And hope that she is looking…

(To be concluded)

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